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Three methods, one call. Each method has a blind spot; the call is made where they agree and the disagreement is the conversation.

GTM Operating Model › Revenue Operations › Forecast
Three forecasts, one call
Each method has a different blind spot. The call is made where they agree; where they disagree is the conversation. Renewal and expansion run the same process on their own pipeline view and their own call.
Rep roll-up
each rep tags every open deal with a category; roll up rep → manager → segment → company

blind spot: optimism, sandbagging
Stage-weighted pipeline
open pipeline × historical win rate by stage and age; no human judgment

blind spot: stale deals, mix shifts
Top-down capacity
ramped reps × quota × historical attainment; what the team can physically close

blind spot: this quarter's actual pipeline
Reconcile
compare the three; explain every gap: which deals, which assumption
The call
one number with a low and high; CRO and CFO both sign it
Actual
quarter closes; ARR waterfall says what happened
Accuracy scorecard
call vs. actual by rep, manager, segment, and method; which method was closest; slipped deals by reason
FORECAST CATEGORIES · set by the rep per period on every open opportunity, checked by the manager; the stage caps the highest category
Commit
will close this period; verbal yes, paper in motion, date committed by the buyer. Should almost never slip.
Best case
could close this period; proposal with the buyer, one or two steps left that the rep does not control.
Pipeline
in this period and qualified, below Best case confidence. Counts toward coverage, not the call. Later-period deals are not in this call.
Omit
open but not forecastable: on hold, no next step, or close date in doubt. Reviewed for closed-lost.
weekly
retune weights and categories

How to read this

  • Rep roll-up carries judgment and bias. Stage-weighted pipeline carries history and ignores this quarter’s specifics. Top-down capacity says what the team can physically close.
  • Reconcile weekly, explain every gap, and publish one number with a low and a high that the CRO and CFO both sign. Renewal and expansion get the same treatment on their own pipeline view.
  • After the quarter closes, the accuracy scorecard compares the call to actual by rep, manager, segment and method, and feeds the weights for next time.

Where it connects

Diagram source: 07-forecast.drawio 07-forecast.svg