The installed base gets its own weekly call. Every renewal due is placed in one of four categories, and the call says how much ARR stays and how much it grows to.
Boxes marked ↗ open the page for that part of the model.
How to read this
- Every subscription gets a renewal opportunity at term minus 120 days, so nothing due in the period is missing from the call.
- The category comes from the health and usage review, not from the renewal conversation alone. A customer can sound friendly while usage falls.
- At risk is the category that drives action: it opens a save play with an executive sponsor, a reset success plan and commercial options. ARR saved from that category is one of the two measures.
- Expansion is not mixed into the renewal categories. It is forecast like new business on its own pipeline view and added on top for NRR.
- The accuracy review feeds back into the health signals and category rules. If renewals keep moving to At risk late, the health score is missing a signal.
Where it connects
Diagram source: 22-renewal-forecast.drawio 22-renewal-forecast.svg
